Chance Didn’t Have to Be This Hard · Chapter 10

Survivor Simulator

Start with enough people and let chance alone sort them, round after round. Someone is always left with a perfect record, and it proves nothing about skill.

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From the book, Chapter 10. 1,024 fund managers with no skill at all, each beating the market or not on a coin flip, for 10 years: about 1 perfect record expected, a 63.2% chance of at least one, 32 perfect after five years and 128 after three.

Exact arithmetic, worked the way the book shows. Everything stays in your browser: no sign-up, nothing stored or sent.