Spot the Cooked Books · Chapter 9

Too-Smooth Returns Detector

In honest investing, calm is expensive and rare; in a Ponzi, calm is free and manufactured. Paste a run of monthly returns and see just how implausibly flat they are.

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Paste at least 12 monthly returns and press Score the smoothness.
From the book — Chapter 9. The two questions: (a) is the annualised return even possible? Compound: (1 + monthly)12 − 1. A "1%/month" claim ≈ 12.7%/year; "3%/month" ≈ 42.6%/year; "8%/month" ≈ 152%/year — impossible. (b) Is it too smooth? Real broad-market monthly returns run a standard deviation of roughly 4%. Madoff's famous run posted ~0.7%. Anything under ~1% with a positive average is worth a very hard look.

Impossibly steady returns, a strategy no one can explain, and payouts that need constant new money are the three Ponzi tells together. A single smoothness score is a hint; combined with the other two, it's a verdict-in-waiting. Everything stays in your browser — no sign-up, nothing stored.