Chance Didn’t Have to Be This Hard · Chapter 13

Lottery Odds

Count the tickets, count the ways to match, and divide. Then multiply each prize by its chance to see what a ticket is worth.

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From the book, Chapter 13. Six from 49: 13,983,816 possible tickets. Three matches are 1 in 56.7, four 1 in 1,032, five 1 in 54,201. With the book’s invented prizes ($10, $100, $2,000 and a $4,000,000 jackpot) a $2 ticket is worth about $0.60, 29.8% of its price. With 30 million tickets in the draw, the chance someone wins the jackpot is 88.3%; yours is unchanged. One ticket a week: 268,920 years on average.

Assumes one fixed prize for each number of matches and a jackpot you don’t share; real games pool and share prizes, which lowers what a ticket is worth. Everything stays in your browser: no sign-up, nothing stored or sent.