Chance Didn’t Have to Be This Hard · Chapter 5

The Long Run

Over many tries the share settles on the chance. Small samples swing wildly, and an edge you can’t see on one spin is near-certain over hundreds.

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Roll a fair die
Heads in fair coin flips
A wheel with a house edge
Enter your numbers, then press Calculate.
From the book, Chapter 5. At least 60% heads is 37.7% in 10 flips, 2.8% in 100 and 1 in 7.3 billion in 1,000. The fairground wheel wins 9 slots in 20, a 10% edge: you’re ahead after 10 spins 26.2% of the time (6 or more wins), but after 500 spins only 1.1%, and the stall expects about $50 of your money. A million computer-rolled dice land on six very close to 16.67% of the time.

The rolls use your browser’s random numbers, so they differ every time; the coin and wheel figures are exact. Everything stays in your browser: no sign-up, nothing stored or sent.